Violence Drops in Iraq (but suspicions don't)

The numbers of American and Iraqi civilian dead last month are the lowest they’ve been in over a year, according to official estimates and international wire services. Reports attribute the drop to several factors, including the surge of American troops in Baghdad and ongoing outreach to Sunni tribes in the tense Anbar province.

What hasn’t come up is any discussion of the influence that Moqtada al Sadr, leader of the Mahdi Army, may have had on this recent drop in violence. When Sadr called for a ceasefire in August, the New York Times’ analysis determined that it was an attempt to regain control over an increasingly splintered and fractious Mahdi Army. But in light of last month’s figures, that analysis may not stand up to the easy assumptions that could be made - and are likely to be encouraged - among Iraqis: namely, that when Sadr calls for peace, peace comes. That’s a kind of power that simply should not be ignored.

On 29 September, the Times also reported an allegedly unprovoked attack by US helicopters upon a Shiite community known for its connections to the Mahdi Army. Civilians in the district of Abu Dshir had gathered after sundown to break their Ramadan fast when, according to witnesses, helicopters that had been hovering overhead fired rockets and sprayed machine gun fire over the crowd. Community gatherings to break fast are traditional and common during the month of Ramadan, as any US official might know if they came by any of the daily, open break fast events being held among the various Islamic countries at their embassies in Washington, DC.

Allegations like this, coupled with the Blackwater incidents, may be making it even harder for the U.S. to see real gains in Iraq. Although the number of deaths has decreased, apparent acts of unprovoked and gratuitous violence by American forces only give more credence to the notion that al Sadr is more capable of restraining his militia, and more capable of bringing peace than the U.S. is capable or even willing to do. That is hardly the case, though; although U.S. forces and the Blackwater agency have certainly taken serious missteps during this holy month, Moqtada al Sadr could well be the most destructive agent in the Iraq conflict, taking advantage of moments like these to portray himself as the true leader of a Shiite-majority, nationalistic Iraqi nation. And if he can convince enough people that only he can bring about the peace that his country so badly needs, he may be quite successful in that endeavor. The tactic is well-honed throughout history; whether it will be defeated in Iraq remains to be seen.

Photo: Site of a funeral after the airstrikes in Abu Dshir, Baghdad. Credit: Marko Georgiev for the New York Times.