Protest Ends as Kenya's Violence Ripples through the Economy

10.05 am EST

Odinga's opposition protest went on as planned in Nairobi earlier today, but without the level of bloodshed expected by journalists and observers. This, combined with a relative slowdown of deaths over the past 24 hours, may be good news for an overall decrease in the violence. A major police buildup prior to the rally may have contributed to the relative calm seen in some parts of the country; armed with riot gear and tear gas, the police pushed back as protesters spread through the city and gradually dispersed. Some protesters were also heard to shout for calm, telling others to put down their rocks and arms.

The day was not without violence, however. As protesters spread around the city and rallied in other parts of the country, doing their best to evade the police, they set homes and businesses on fire. The New York Times's Jeffrey Gettleman reports that in one Nairobi slum, a gang of men tore through, attacking, burning, and raping as they went. One of the gang was apparently caught by the residents of the slum, and hacked to death, his body remaining in the street. Police say the area is too tense for them to recover the body.

Since Tuesday, the death toll has risen to 300.

Intense pressure is being applied by diplomats from several nations, and the UN, EU, and African Union have all been using their resources to bring an end to the violence and resolve the hotly contested election results. Archbishop Desmond Tutu, a revered figure throughout Africa and the world, arrived in Kenya earlier today with calls for peace. At 3.00 pm local time, Mr. Odinga's opposition party ended the protest; although chants of "No Odinga, no peace" continue to raise alarm, Odinga's opposition party seem to have shifted toward referring to President Mwai Kibaki, and not to the Kikuyu people, as the sole source of their discontent. The Kikuyu, who are the largest tribe within Kenya, were the privileged class in the days of British colonialism and maintain more influence over politics and business than most other tribes (among approximately forty around the country). Other tribes have banded together with the Luo (Odinga's tribe) during the recent violence, their enmity apparently shared against the Kikuyu.

What may be the bigger story today is the disruption of trade and the ramifications this violence has for Kenya's economy, one of the most important and stabilizing factors in the continent. Roads are considered too dangerous for travel, and looting & damage to businesses has severely disrupted the markets. After opening for only one hour, the Kenyan stock exchange closed again. With Kenya's roads as a major conduit for trade between several nations, including Congo, Uganda, and Sudan, this disruption is having an immediate impact and causing shortages of basic goods in other countries. Uganda has already raised concerns about the shortages along its border, where hundreds of Kenyan refugees have crossed over within the last few days. The trucks that normally bring supplies have not crossed with them.

For an very useful hour-by-hour breakdown of events, along with photos and eyewitness accounts from inside Kenya, go directly to the BBC's coverage.

For those following the forms of violence at hand, the use of rape and the growing use of machetes continues to raise alarms. The gratuitous violence engendered by these means spells trouble, for it creates more lasting grounds for stronger retaliation. Whether this and the church fire on Tuesday, whose victims are said to have been 50% children, will have further ramifications in the coming days remains to be seen.

Kenya Unraveling

Every dispatch from Nairobi for the past two weeks has gone from bad to worse. A summary of the situation:

Dec 30, 2007 - Allegations of election fraud intensify around the country as President Mwai Kibaki is sworn in. Violence begins to erupt in small pockets, and has an ethnic component from the beginning. President Kibaki is from the ruling elite, the Kikuyu tribe; the Kikuyu make up approximately 22% of the general population and have controlled the state in terms of politics, business, and other measures of socioeconomic power since the early 1960s.

Jan 1, 2008 - The UN and other nations question the validity of Kenya's elections; the UN calls for an investigation, which President Kibaki rejects. The Kenyan Red Cross reports that "over 100,000 people have been affected/displaced countrywide"; the New York Times notes that some now seek refuge in Uganda, a country that would have been considered far less stable and peaceful than Kenya only 2 weeks ago. On December 13th, the New York Times was reporting on Uganda's worries that the increasing violence and threat of war in Congo might push neighboring countries like Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi back into violence.

Jan 2, 2008 - Violence spreads and intensifies. At approximately noon on Tuesday January 1st, the estimate of the dead is at 100. By midnight on the 2nd, it has risen to 250. Kikuyu are fleeing their homes and gathering in and around police stations and churches. One church where hundreds of Kikuyu gathered in Kiambaa was set on fire with gasoline; although many escaped, 50 are reported to have died, and many more have suffered severe injuries. Women and children are said to make up the majority of the dead. Photographs of the violence also show clear evidence of police brutality against supporters of the opposition candidate, Mr. Odinga. The Luos, the tribe of Mr. Odinga, are said to be targeted by a fierce Kikuyu gang in the slums of Nairobi.

The news keeps going from bad to worse, and already Kenyans and observers have begun to talk about the Rwandan genocide of 1994.

The violence already bears the characteristic signs of genocide. People are being pulled from cars and asked for identity cards; a name often indicates one's tribe. The Eldoret area to the west of Nairobi has been one of the hottest spots for violence; there, several people have been hacked to death with machetes, and four were beheaded on Monday, December 31st. These facts are important for several reasons:

1. There is increasing evidence that the attacks have broken down entirely on ethnic lines. People being asked for ID cards aren't targeted because of who they voted for or the shop they might own; they're being targeted because they come from the wrong tribe.
2. The use of machetes (pangas), so notorious in the Rwandan violence of 1994, sharply decreases the distance between victim and killer. The violence is intentional, highly visible, and becomes deeply personal for the killer; if the use of machetes in Rwanda is any indication, then this violence is much more likely spread and intensify than it would be if the method were less direct & short-range.
   
3. Beheading people carries more than the blunt significance of death; it dishonors the dead and mutilates the body in a way designed to carry a broader message to anyone who might identify with the victim. It is a promise of more violence to come.

According to Jeffrey Gettleman, a veteran reporter for the New York Times who has covered much of the violence in Iraq and other intense conflicts, Mr. Odinga's opposition party is planning to hold a million-person march on Thursday, which many predict will cause a "bloodbath."

Not all the indicators are negative, however. Kenya has been considered one of the most stable countries in Africa in large part because its tribal tensions have been diffused by the multitude of stakeholders in politics and the economy. There has been a high rate of intermarriage between tribes, and unlike countries with fewer, more polarized tribes, Kenya's diversity has been a stabilizing influence. And some reports have carried promising news about calls for peace by people in the slums of Nairobi.

There is the potential for this violence to slow down, but given that Mr. Odinga ran on a platform that promised to end Kikuyu favoritism, it may be that months of sharp rhetoric have convinced people that the divide between Kikuyu and non-Kikuyu is wider than they thought. If that's the case, then talk about stakeholders and peace may not bear up under the weight of this bloodshed. And with war heating up in the Congo and the potential for a destabilized Uganda, now is not the time for optimistic assumptions.

To view the most recent reports on the violence, I recommend the coverage by the BBC World News service, and the New York Times online.

Drought Scorches Southeast in Record Levels

When you think of the worst drought in the Southeastern region of the U.S., you tend to think of the Dust Bowl and Depression. You wouldn't think it was happening today.

But that's exactly what's going on. In Atlanta, the city's main reservoir at Lake Lanier will be completely dry within 4 months without significant, sustained rainfall to replenish it. Alabama and Mississippi sounded the call three months ago when crops began to fail - including the corn crop that promised such lucrative returns in the growing ethanol market. Instead of a South revitalized by new markets for agricultural products and other resources demanded to combat climate change, these cities and states are finding themselves suddenly caught in one of the energy crisis' biggest problems.

Unlike the hurricanes and tornadoes featured in An Inconvenient Truth, drought is the kind of crisis that people tend to ignore until they get nothing out of the tap one morning. In fact, a hurricane or two would have provided the heavy rainfall to refill reservoirs. Moreover, drought spawns even more problems for the environment than some shorter, more dramatic disasters: major soil erosion (again, think Dust Bowl and the loss of invaluable top soil) and the increased use of disposable paper & plastic goods (to conserve water that would be used for washing) are just two of many. And unlike the Southwest, where water is always at a premium and conservation is a way of life, the Southeast's self-image of a wet, sultry landscape belies the reality of parched fields and dry creek beds. But people need to open their eyes and get serious about conservation today if they're going to avert disaster.

People along the Mid-Atlantic region and Midwest shouldn't consider themselves free of these problems, either. Virginia and Maryland are already caught up in the drought; my own city of Washington, DC has yet to issue a serious call for water conservation despite the problems creeping in from the nearby suburbs. Just miles outside the city, fires spark easily from a casually flicked cigarette - and lest we forget, the District has already undergone several problems with fires that can't be put out quickly because of non-functioning fire hydrants. Those problems were attributed to long-standing issues with faulty water mains, but while fixing the pipes of the city's outdated infrastructure we should also remember just how crucial the conservation issue is.

It's time to start thinking about climate change in immediate terms: what will we do to avert disaster within the next month? Two months? Three? Each day needs to bring significant progress and a much more proactive mentality. Otherwise, we'll soon know what it feels like to be in the bigger, drier version of the Dust Bowl.

The Idea Generation

When Thomas Friedman asks my generation for our idealism, activism, and outrage, I ask: What about our ideas?

If we gave Mr. Friedman what he wanted, we could produce a mass movement fueled by passion, believing in the good and marching ahead with vigor. But we would have no clue where we were going.

Outrage gets people out of bed so they come to the table demanding answers. Passion is vital, because once you start demanding answers, you find yourself deflated by the blank looks and empty promises. And it’s our heads, not our bodies, which will make the difference.

We are the Idea Generation. That quiet you hear is the sound of people thinking. We could shout demands for our leaders to produce solutions, but since they haven’t yet, we’ve gone ahead and started doing it ourselves. Because we have no political debts, no cemented allegiances to party or platform, and no problem with sharing information, we have unlimited freedom to innovate and create.

We can solve the most baffling problems because we actually think it can be done. That kind of fire is what Mr. Friedman wants, but what he doesn’t realize is the true value of our methods. The relatively quiet click of keys sounds the path of lightning-speed, real-time debates happening around the country among thousands of people. Our brand of rapid response doesn’t just create a happening - it posts evidence of the problems and solutions for them with a transparency all should appreciate.

So if we are quiet, it’s because we aren’t trying to shout people down; we engage them in real dialogue. If we are quiet, it’s because we fight to win, not just to fight. If we are quiet, the world should join us and listen for a change to the testimony of all the things that need to be heard.

Baltimore Development Falters

As part of the economic downturn caused by the burst of the housing and construction bubble, the city of Baltimore finds itself struggling to maintain momentum in its redevelopment program. Many residents come from working class and middle class backgrounds, although there has been growth in financial services and the jobs supplied by the city’s biggest employer, the Johns Hopkins University & Hospital.

The fact that the city is growing in financial services and higher education-related jobs could spell success for Baltimore. If it continues to grow in those sectors, the would-be bedroom community outside of Washington, D.C. could develop into a city like Boston. Indeed, Baltimore already reflects some of the basic infrastructure that Boston has, with its active port, major research & university industry, and financial services work. And if it can capitalize on the eco-friendly aspects of its development, it may be able to keep its revitalization hopes alive. For instance, the city has experienced some housing growth around its downtown train station, where the MARC train runs a 50-60 minute commute to Washington; that growth seems to be stalling out these days, according to the New York Times. But if middle-class D.C. workers are reminded that their drive from the nearer suburbs of Maryland and Virginia can take just as long (or longer) than the MARC train, they may be more inclined to see Baltimore as the best bedroom community option. With a major baseball team, an already-revived downtown area in the Inner Harbor, and the other cultural allures that a city can offer - plus, the bonus of taking a more environmentally-friendly, low-stress, sleep-on-your-way-to-work commute - Baltimore arguably has a lot more to offer than the suburbs outside the D.C. Metro system.

That’s why it will be vital for the mayor, city council, and governor’s office to take an aggressive approach to halting the flood of problems that have come in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis. There’s a host of policies that they could employ, starting off with a cap on payday loan interest rates that is exacerbating the problems of the low-income and working class families who are already struggling to hold on to their home loans. The District of Columbia recently capped payday lenders like Check N’Go at 23% interest, effectively putting the predatory lending industry out of business in the District. (Special thanks to Roosevelter Ben Lazarus, a Yale student who testified for that particular piece of legislation.) The city of Baltimore should take a similarly aggressive stance, partly because there is virtually no political gain to be had from siding with payday lenders (a singularly sleazy industry). Debt-ridden, vulnerable students in the city would also gain from such a change, especially if the city invested some resources in earmarks for responsible lending organizations who counsel people on getting out of debt and provide invaluable financial literacy programs to low-income communities.

Background material from the 25 Ideas for Working Families at http://rooseveltinstitution.org/publications/25ideas

and

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/04/business/04baltimore.html?pagewanted=2&th&emc=th

Back in Blackwater, pt II

Today, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform will hold a hearing regarding the Blackwater incidents that have raised so many concerns about the private security contractor’s practices in Iraq. Starting at 10am, witnesses will include:

Erik Prince, Chairman of the Prince Group, LLC and Blackwater USA
Ambassador David Satterfield, Special Adviser, Coordinator for Iraq, State Dept
Ambassador Richard Griffin, Assistant Secretary, Diplomatic Security, State Dept
William Moser, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Logistics, State Dept

Yesterday, a memo to the Committee revealed the product of recent inquiry into the State Department and Blackwater’s operations. The summary of findings includes details of continuous and deadly disregard for human life, sometimes planned in advance of the event itself. Stories of vehicular manslaughter include details of an innocent bystander shot and subsequently run over by a Blackwater security escort; another lists 18 different collisions with Iraqi vehicles while en route to and from a meeting at the Ministry of Oil. The reason for so many collisions? “The tactical commander of the mission ‘openly admitted giving clear direction to the primary driver to conduct these acts of random negligence for no apparent reason.’” The report also demonstrates that over 80% of Blackwater’s engagements involve first-fire by Blackwater contractors, contributing not a little to the company’s reputation for “cowboy” behavior.

In cases where the contractors do not simply leave the scene of the incident (many times, shots are fired from a moving Blackwater vehicle) or do not attempt to cover up the incident, the princely sums of $5000 to $15000 are offered to families as compensation in an attempt to move on quickly and quietly. Those sums are not simply negotiated by Blackwater, either; they are negotiated and by State Department officials involved in the diplomatic fallout of such events. Thus the U.S. government is directly implicated in the series of incidents and almost complete lack of consequences for this company, going so far as to transport a Blackwater agent accused of drunkenly killing a security guard for the Iraqi vice president, getting him out of the country and out of the hands of Iraqi courts. With no court martial as an option for these agents, who are privately contracted (often in multi-million, no-bid contracts that reek of insider advantage and gross mismanagement of taxpayers’ funds), one cannot tell what the fallout may be for those who have killed, maimed, and irreversibly damaged so many Iraqis. Maybe, perhaps, they’ll lose their jobs.

For the full text of the report, click here.

Violence Drops in Iraq (but suspicions don't)

The numbers of American and Iraqi civilian dead last month are the lowest they’ve been in over a year, according to official estimates and international wire services. Reports attribute the drop to several factors, including the surge of American troops in Baghdad and ongoing outreach to Sunni tribes in the tense Anbar province.

What hasn’t come up is any discussion of the influence that Moqtada al Sadr, leader of the Mahdi Army, may have had on this recent drop in violence. When Sadr called for a ceasefire in August, the New York Times’ analysis determined that it was an attempt to regain control over an increasingly splintered and fractious Mahdi Army. But in light of last month’s figures, that analysis may not stand up to the easy assumptions that could be made - and are likely to be encouraged - among Iraqis: namely, that when Sadr calls for peace, peace comes. That’s a kind of power that simply should not be ignored.

On 29 September, the Times also reported an allegedly unprovoked attack by US helicopters upon a Shiite community known for its connections to the Mahdi Army. Civilians in the district of Abu Dshir had gathered after sundown to break their Ramadan fast when, according to witnesses, helicopters that had been hovering overhead fired rockets and sprayed machine gun fire over the crowd. Community gatherings to break fast are traditional and common during the month of Ramadan, as any US official might know if they came by any of the daily, open break fast events being held among the various Islamic countries at their embassies in Washington, DC.

Allegations like this, coupled with the Blackwater incidents, may be making it even harder for the U.S. to see real gains in Iraq. Although the number of deaths has decreased, apparent acts of unprovoked and gratuitous violence by American forces only give more credence to the notion that al Sadr is more capable of restraining his militia, and more capable of bringing peace than the U.S. is capable or even willing to do. That is hardly the case, though; although U.S. forces and the Blackwater agency have certainly taken serious missteps during this holy month, Moqtada al Sadr could well be the most destructive agent in the Iraq conflict, taking advantage of moments like these to portray himself as the true leader of a Shiite-majority, nationalistic Iraqi nation. And if he can convince enough people that only he can bring about the peace that his country so badly needs, he may be quite successful in that endeavor. The tactic is well-honed throughout history; whether it will be defeated in Iraq remains to be seen.

Photo: Site of a funeral after the airstrikes in Abu Dshir, Baghdad. Credit: Marko Georgiev for the New York Times.